China's low-carbon energy is in a stage of rapid development.


Release time:

2020-05-14

As of the end of 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in our country has exceeded the "13th Five-Year Plan" target, while the installed capacity of wind power is still less than 50 gigawatts away from the "13th Five-Year Plan" target. If the original indicators of the "13th Five-Year Plan" are considered an unchangeable ceiling, then there is very little room left for current wind and solar energy. The installed capacity of solar energy has now reached 150 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of wind energy has reached 180 million kilowatts. Additionally, this year has seen significant improvements in the abandonment rates of wind and solar energy. By the first half of this year, the abandonment rate of wind energy has decreased to about 8%, while the abandonment rate of solar energy is approximately 3%, and this number will continue to decrease. Therefore, the National Energy Administration has also stated that the original indicators of the "13th Five-Year Plan" need to be adjusted, and this indicator will be raised rather than used to limit the development of renewable energy.

By the end of 2017, China's installed photovoltaic capacity has exceeded the "13th Five-Year Plan" target, while the installed wind power capacity is still less than 50 gigawatts away from the "13th Five-Year Plan" target. If the original indicators of the "13th Five-Year Plan" are regarded as an unchangeable ceiling, then there is very little room left for wind and solar energy. Currently, the installed solar capacity has reached 150 million kilowatts, and the installed wind capacity has reached 180 million kilowatts. Additionally, this year has seen significant improvements in the abandonment rates of wind and solar energy. By the first half of this year, the abandonment rate of wind energy has decreased to about 8%, while the abandonment rate of solar energy is around 3%, and this number will continue to decrease. Therefore, the National Energy Administration has also stated that the original indicators of the "13th Five-Year Plan" need to be adjusted, and this indicator will be raised rather than used to limit the development of renewable energy.

Furthermore, it currently appears that the China-U.S. trade war will not affect China's low-carbon energy development. There are two reasons for this: first, there is a fundamental social demand for low-carbon energy, as society needs to develop green and low-carbon electricity; second, the costs of low-carbon energy are rapidly decreasing, making it increasingly competitive. Therefore, internal capabilities are improving, and external demand is high, which will certainly allow for continued progress. China's renewable and low-carbon energy is in a historically rapid development stage, and no fluctuations will change this development trend.

In terms of technology, China's low-carbon energy still has a certain level of competitiveness in the international arena, with rapid development and considerable scale. It is not very difficult for China to achieve this. Additionally, the prices and costs of low-carbon energy are also decreasing. However, we must recognize our weaknesses; the fundamental weakness of low-carbon energy lies in basic research. To delve deeper, we need to pay attention to materials science. For example, solar cells are currently a very active field, with various types of solar cells competing in terms of cost and efficiency, and the core area is materials science. Similarly, energy storage also involves the effective use of materials. Huawei has made considerable achievements in battery technology. Materials science determines the technology of low-carbon energy; for instance, wind turbines also face material issues, such as the need for corrosion-resistant materials.

If we talk about gaps, we indeed have a gap compared to international standards. This gap is reflected in the need for domestic enterprises to remain clear-headed and improve their manufacturing capabilities. However, fundamentally, the country must pay attention to the technological research of low-carbon energy, and the technicians engaged in this research must have the perseverance to achieve results. China's capabilities in new materials still need improvement; for instance, organic and inorganic solar energy are often new developments in international research, and domestic research tends to follow up on these developments. However, we lack independent innovation, which requires new ideas from materials science. Therefore, the gap between China and the international community lies in the need to improve the basic research of renewable energy.

Low-carbon energy comes in many forms, and their relationships are not antagonistic; they coexist and need to work together. I advocate for the "three horses of low-carbon energy," which specifically refer to renewable energy, nuclear energy, and natural gas. Renewable energy includes wind, solar, geothermal, ocean energy, and hydropower, among others. Although natural gas is a fossil fuel, it is relatively low-carbon compared to other fossil fuels. Therefore, I personally refer to these three as "three horses pulling the cart together"; having just one of them is not sufficient. In the energy sector, coal accounts for 60% of the share, and to replace such a high proportion of coal with low-carbon energy, they need to work together.

The author is Du Xiangwan, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

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